Smart Shift

While the exact origins of the lowly screw¹ are lost in history², it is hard to imagine today how we would function without such a device. The ability to create a helical thread on metal lay first in the domain of the smith. In the 14th century, metal workers who could create locks were in high demand, particularly among³ European nobility. Creating a helical thread on metal was just one technique required by craftsmen who turned their hands to locks, then clocks and indeed, guns, torture equipment⁴ and other contraptions.

The use of a helically threaded device, if tapered, to hold two pieces of wood together did not go unrecognised. It’s a simple question of maths — a screw works in much the same way as a pulley, in that it is easier to twist something and cause its forward motion, than it is to push the thing directly. Wine presses first took advantage of this capability back in Roman times (and probably earlier), as did the printing press, both of which used large wooden screw mechanisms to exert the maximum pressure with minimal effort. It was only a matter of time before someone spotted the opportunity to use the same principle to fasten one piece of wood to another: once the flexibility of the screw was recognised, it quickly became an essential element of a craftsman’s toolkit. Indeed, it is no coincidence that people who work with wood are still referred to as ‘joiners’.

The screw-based mechanism could also be used as a central element of a lathe. By twisting it back or forth, the element could be moved forwards and backwards with a certain degree of accuracy. In a stunningly simple example of a feedback loop, it wasn’t long in historical terms before someone worked out that lathes could be used to speed up the production of screws. One of the first mentions⁵ was in Das mittelalterliche Hausbuch — literally, the Medieval Housebook — written in 1480 by Waldburg Wolfegg. In the 1700s a Frenchman, Antoine Thiout, used a screw mechanism to further enhance the accuracy of the lathe, meaning better screws. This relationship between devices and their method of manufacture underpinned the industrial revolution, with screws the archetypal example — in turn being manufactured and enabling the manufacture of so many things. Aided by the standardisation of screw threads in 1841[^ Whitworth standard], the industrial revolution was, in fact, one big feedback loop, exploiting the potential differences created by human-powered automation and pushing the ‘West’ to the front of the global economic race, at the same time as nearly destroying itself: it is no coincidence that the two greatest conflicts in history took war to an industrial level; nor, for that matter, that the First World War immediately followed what has been termed the ‘second industrial revolution’; nor that some of the biggest advances in technology appeared to take place immediately post-1945.

Over recent decades the West has looked to the East for its manufacturing needs, with changes in the balance of power once again a consequence of economic potential difference. Cheaper production started in Japan, extending to other countries including South Korea and of course, China. As the communist regime started to open up its borders to trade, it has stumbled upon a source of economic growth. As technology eased challenges of communications, the gap closed still further, as a consequence enabling one of the poorest families in the world to become one of the richest. Today, if you are a small business looking to import some equipment or components from China, you need look no further than Alibaba. The company’s online trade catalogue contains 400 million products, from over a million manufacturers and suppliers — not just electronics, but everything from mood rings to car spares. If it can be bought and is legal, you will find it listed.

In 1999 the charismatic, if diminutive entrepreneur Jack Ma gathered 17 people in his flat in Hangzhou, spoke for two hours about his aspirations, then asked them to invest. “Everyone put their money on the table, and that got us $60,000,” he said. A more fundamental example of an unlikely person stumbling upon a moment of staggering potential difference would be hard to find. Ma’s parents were practitioners of Pingtan⁶, a traditional form of musical storytelling originating in the Suzhou region of China. His early life reads like an anthology of thinking creatively in difficult circumstances — his parents were not that well off, his father would beat him, his grandfather (a Nationalist Party member) was persecuted as an enemy of the Communist revolution and Pingtan was banned⁷ during the Cultural Revolution in 1966, when Ma was 2 years old. According to the stories, Ma frequently⁸ failed exams, and was rejected even from KFC; all the same, he learned English as a tour guide from the age of 12, taught English and spent a formative month in Australia (where he learned that the whole world was not like China).

In 1994 Ma launched a translation service, and when he was working for a trade delegation in the US as a consequence, he discovered the Internet. Shortly after, he decided to launch a Yellow Pages service dedicated to China. “We searched the word ‘beer’ on Yahoo and discovered that there was no data about China,” he remarked⁹. “I borrowed $2,000 to set up the company. I knew nothing about personal computers or e-mails. I had never touched a keyboard before that. That's why I call myself, ‘Blind man riding on the back of a blind tiger.’ ” A few years later (and after other business ventures) Ma was working for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation when he had to return to his tour guide roots — he was assigned the task of taking Jerry Yang, co-founder of Yahoo, to see the Great Wall. All such events led Ma to realise that Internet entrepreneurs were just ordinary people, like him: if he didn’t seize the opportunity, someone else would.

Alibaba was the first in a series of incredibly successful ventures for Jack Ma. In 2003 he launched an eBay-like site, Taobao, for consumers. Ma had no shortage of new ideas — as his father said¹⁰ to him, “If you were born 30 years ago, you'd probably be in a prison, because the ideas you have are so dangerous.” Indeed, his Kung Fu nickname is, Feng Qingyang, which means ‘unpredictable and aggressive’. Ma’s history has not been without controversy — a decision to hand email data over to the Chinese government led to journalists being incarcerated, for example (In his own words, he said Alibaba should “be in love with the government but never marry it.”). But the market was mostly interested in his platforms. When Alibaba IPO’ed in 2014 for a record-breaking $150 Billion, Ma instantly became worth $25 billion and has been ranked¹¹ the 30th most powerful person in the world[^ Most recently he has become an advocate of sustainability. He had been quoted as saying, “Our water has become undrinkable, our food inedible, our milk poisonous and worst of all the air in our cities is so polluted that we often cannot see the sun. Twenty years ago, people in China were focusing on economic survival. Now, people have better living conditions and big dreams for the future. But these dreams will be hollow if we cannot see the sun.”].

Ma’s success story goes to the heart of the changing nature of manufacturing and supply. We have become used to a relatively small number of conglomerates controlling the products we buy and use, from car manufacturers to horribly acronymed ‘fast-moving consumer goods’ (FMCG) companies, which sell everything from yoghurts to toilet cleaner. In the new model, an enormous number of small companies are fronted by a common portal which facilitates the relationship, provides a shopping cart and offers some recourse in case of issues. Of course there’s nothing to stop such businesses becoming larger — companies like Foxconn grew from similarly small beginnings — but size is no longer a gating factor. Neither is the model unique to China. In the West, Etsy offers a home for home-made and artisanal products co consumers can buy direct, and Fiver connects creative types and designers to small companies. Sites also exist for collaboration on designs, such as Libelium’s Cooking Hacks¹². Looking even more locally, there are sites for fast food and for odd jobs, indeed (and as you might imagine), any opportunity to connect supply with demand has now been attempted in one way or another.

The result is a complex series of positive feedback loops, driving what some¹³ are calling the ‘third industrial revolution’. The fact is that just as anyone can be a customer of such sites, and indeed anyone can be a supplier — it is noteworthy that Alibaba’s latest growth plans include the ability for western manufacturers to sell direct to China. Companies are no longer distinguished by their size — if you have a desire to bake cakes and distribute them locally in your spare time, or you want to advertise your copywriting skills, the chances are you can do so. Large-scale manufacturers that previously had the monopoly on supply and demand now have to compete and collaborate as peers with organisations a tiny fraction of their size. ‘Co-creation’ is becoming a common theme in the corridors of big business.

Just as people are being gathered to develop ideas and create things at a corporate level, for example through brainstorming hackathons in technical communities, so are get-togethers taking place for quilting or knitting in what is being termed the ‘maker’ movement. All the same, with its hippy-esque outlook, the maker movement looks awfully like the early days of computing — indeed, with the Home Brew Club, beer seems to be a common theme. To understand where ‘making’ is going and the relationship between corporate and individual, we would do well to look at the upsurge in craft beer production. At one point the number of independent breweries was down to a very small level, as the market was being absorbed into consortia. But thousands have sprung up in recent years. They succeed or fail on the basis of how good they are. But what has really enabled them to thrive has been the lowering of costs of manufacturing equipment, a factor for which we also have China to thank. Brewing equipment and supplies are available from Alibaba, of course!

Some might say that this hipster-esque reversion to craft is all nostalgia, but equally it is a return to traditional norms as diminishing thresholds bring the power of production — which created the industrial revolution in the first place — into the domain of individual people. As equipment costs fall, the consequences of this feedback loop go right to the heart of manufacturing, right to the direct creation of stuff itself. We can now produce our own stuff, through the power of what is being called 3D printing. Just as printers connect to a computer and enable images to be reproduced on a sheet of paper, so 3D printers can take computer-based designs and generate physical objects. And the impact is profound.

A wide variety models of 3D printer exist. The most commonly considered are those creating objects through extrusion of quick-setting materials, which can then be built upon layer by layer. The result isn't necessarily an object of beauty — there's only so much you can achieve by squeezing epoxy out of a tube. However already uses are emerging that were not even considered by the original creators. For example the epoxy resin can be replaced by chocolate or sugar paste to make confectionery; printed parts can be milled to add more complex features. And meanwhile, ‘printers’ (or more accurately, computer-controlled cutting tools) can work with layered wood, fibre board or indeed metal to create shapes that can then be assembled. MIT has even ‘cracked’ — sorry — how to 3D print glass.

The gating factor for all such equipment is the cost. Like many other types of manufacturing equipment, 3D printers started expensive, and were therefore available for specific uses only, at places that could afford it — such as the R&D departments of well-funded Formula 1 teams, where they were used to create prototypes of aerodynamic parts to be tested in the wind tunnel (In this context the printer was the flat-bed type, using lasers to heat up specific points in a bed of resin. Drain away the remaining fluid and a part would emerge, almost majestically.). As 3D printing increases in popularity — a consequence of falling thresholds itself — is also following the laws of shrinkage, on a parallel path to Moore’s Law.

In parallel with cost, however, comes how 3D printing fits with everything else. It’s not just the device — equally important are the designs that can then be printed. And when we look at these we see them following a similar, open path to other parts of computing. Open source 3D printing communities exist which offer, share and advise on design templates. Consider, for example, that which has been built around the ‘RepRap’ open source 3D printer project. In an interesting mirror of the screw-lathe dynamic, RepRap printers can print themselves, or at least their component parts. Such a device does require some components that cannot be printed - steel bars, circuit boards and so on - so using the term "self-replicating" is a bit of a stretch. However the majority of pieces can, as can spares, should anything break. Meanwhile, designs can be downloaded and used, or indeed uploaded for comment, enhancement and integration to create more complex objects. Both the capability, and the pieces that emerge, open new doors to down to earth, home-brew innovation.

In several years' time 3D printers may be more common in homes and businesses, for example to create coat hooks, doorknobs and other fittings. New possibilities are coming online all the time, for example printing¹⁴ ‘bionic’ hands, or even genuine body parts. The long and the short is that we will be able to create new objects and devices in very short orders, to help us in all sorts of ways. The ability to create products from recycled raw materials in so-called ‘developing’ countries is very attractive where transportation is an issue.

3D printing is not all a bed of roses. 3D printing of handguns is often cited as a cause for concern, for example. Meanwhile some are saying that 3D Printing is threatening to take the toy market away, or for stealing ideas — it probably won’t achieve the former, but the latter perhaps. This will certainly make uncomfortable reading for manufacturers of simpler objects, but in some ways, such organisations have been using industrial scale 3D printers for years, and they will continue to extend their industrial capabilities (or fall by the wayside). As a consequence of this complex array of feedback loops, we are most likely to see a bifurcation between the creators of small-footprint manufacturing equipment and the users of such equipment. At which point, the recipes and experience become the most important factors. Indeed, a couple of decades ago plumbers seemed to think that their businesses would be ruined by push joints, but it hasn’t. Quite the opposite. Overall, it looks like we will continue to have a relationship between big and small, between commodity and smart, between community and corporation.

3D printing will undoubtedly push up against the Internet of Things, the world of Big Data, of Machine Learning and so on, no doubt we will be printing sensor housings and creating new tools and items. But will we all have complex equipment in our kitchens, or will we rely on local ‘3D print shops’ to create the objects we need? Will, “Hang on, I’ll just print one off,” may become a familiar cry? No doubt big business will play a substantial role, as Amazon has intimated, with its suggestions of housing 3D printers in trucks so it can create objects en route to the destination. It is no surprise that ‘hackathons’ garner a great deal of sponsorship from the corporate world, which continues to watch with interest.

At a deeper level, smarter ‘printers’ are starting to look a lot like the kinds of robots intrinsic to large-scale manufacturing, and which are on the brink of becoming more of a familiar sight in our daily lives. Indeed, we may be able to automatically build our own robots, at which point, the 3D printed gloves will be off. With this in mind, and to round off this journey into the near future, let’s take a look at the robot revolution.